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Bitcoin Supply Shock: Multi-Billion Dollar Migration Off Exchanges

Benjamin Marshall
Bitcoin coins in front of a blurred Coinbase price chart in a server room. Potential Bitcoin supply shock. - Flush

Bitcoin news reports show users moved $1 billion worth of Bitcoin off Coinbase in a single day - the largest daily outflow in 2025. Users withdrew 9,739 BTC while the cryptocurrency traded above $103,600 on May 9. This major change in investor behavior happened right when the White House announced a 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China.

The latest bitcoin news shows this Coinbase activity reflects a larger trend. Users have removed over 47,000 BTC from exchange reserves, marking the highest volume since the FTX collapse. Bitcoin ETF news might be grabbing headlines, but corporations have bought four times more Bitcoin than all US spot Bitcoin ETFs combined in 2025, reaching close to 200,000 BTC. This steady accumulation has driven Bitcoin's illiquid supply to a record 14 million BTC. Analysts now warn this could trigger a supply shock if demand keeps outpacing available supply.

Coinbase sees $1B Bitcoin outflow in single day

Coinbase saw a huge outflow of digital assets on May 9, 2025. The cryptocurrency giant, ranked as the world's third-largest exchange, saw an extraordinary movement that caught market analysts and investors' attention.

9,739 BTC withdrawn on May 9, 2025

Bitwise's head of European research André Dragosch reported users took exactly 9,739 Bitcoin from Coinbase in just one day. This massive withdrawal, worth more than $1 billion, shows a fundamental change in how large investors manage their cryptocurrency assets. Large institutions usually spread their purchases over time to minimize market effects. This withdrawal happened all at once.

"Institutional appetite for bitcoin is accelerating," Dragosch said in a May 13 post on X (formerly Twitter). The remarkable outflow suggests major players are either repositioning strategically or institutional investors now prefer self-custody.

Event marks highest daily outflow of the year

The bitcoin news reveals a key milestone in exchange activity patterns for 2025. Data from multiple sources confirms the May 9 withdrawal stands as the highest net outflow recorded on Coinbase this year. The scale makes this movement stand out compared to normal daily exchange flows.

Analysts have compared this event to previous major outflows. The concentrated nature of this withdrawal suggests large-scale investors made calculated moves rather than routine exchange operations.

Bitcoin trades above $103,600 during the move

Coinbase BTC/USD chart showing the price above $103,000. Bitcoin price amidst supply shock. - Flush

This massive Coinbase news event happened while the cryptocurrency showed strength. Bitcoin traded above $103,600 as investors withdrew these funds. The timing proved crucial given the broader market conditions.

The large outflow happened just as investor confidence improved after the White House announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs with China. This economic development boosted institutional buyers' confidence and possibly encouraged them to increase their bitcoin holdings.

Market analysts believe large amounts of purchasing power moving off exchanges usually indicates strong institutional faith in bitcoin's future. Dragosch and other observers say this dramatic exit from Coinbase shows a notable change in market dynamics.

The backdrop remains bullish, but Dragosch warned the crypto market might still see short-term corrections due to what he called overheated investor sentiment.

Institutional demand accelerates amid market optimism

A powerful trend has emerged beyond the dramatic Coinbase outflow. Major players have accelerated their Bitcoin accumulation strategies to unprecedented levels, as multiple data sources confirm this transformation toward long-term holdings.

Corporate buyers outpace U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs

Corporate treasuries now dominate the Bitcoin market. Companies acquired Bitcoin at four times the rate of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs combined throughout 2025. Their buying spree comes close to 200,000 BTC, matching the entire annual new Bitcoin supply.

Strategy leads this corporate wave of accumulation. In the first five months of 2025, the company added over 120,000 BTC to its holdings and secured its position as the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder with over 568,840 BTC in its treasury. Smaller corporations have joined this movement too, Mara Holdings, Galaxy Digital, Tesla. Metaplanet are the tip of the iceberg on the list, with multiple nw entrants like GameStop expected tostart their acquisitions in the following months.

Analysts confirm growing appetite from large investors

Bitcoin price and addresses holding over 10 BTC, from Bitcoin Magazine. Supply shock indicators. - Flush

Large-scale Bitcoin accumulation has surged according to on-chain metrics. Whale portfolios (containing at least $1 million in Bitcoin) grew significantly from 124,000 to over 137,600 wallets between early and late April. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have grown faster than their 30-day average. This pattern typically connects with bullish market conditions.

Bitcoin's "illiquid supply" has hit a record 14 million BTC due to institutional hoarding. This metric tracks coins in wallets with minimal selling history, which shows their transfer to cold storage or long-term holding addresses—a typical behavior of institutional investors.

Nansen and Bitwise analysts weigh in on trend

Aurelie Barthere, principal analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph that increasing institutional demand could trigger a supply shock as exchanges see their Bitcoin reserves diminish. Prices might rise when buyer demand meets decreasing available supply.

John D'Agostino, head of strategy at Coinbase Institutional, observed that sovereign wealth funds actively bought Bitcoin throughout April 2025. He highlighted Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation and macroeconomic instability.

Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI expect sustained institutional demand could drive Bitcoin's price up to $200,000 in 2025. Their forecast includes continued corporate buying and increasing ETF inflows alongside favorable macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin supply shock risk grows as illiquid supply hits record

Bitcoin faces a growing supply shortage as big investors keep moving their holdings off exchanges. Recent bitcoin news shows an unusual market situation that could affect future prices by a lot.

Glassnode reports 14 million BTC in illiquid wallets

Glassnode's on-chain analytics platform confirms Bitcoin's "illiquid supply" has hit a record 14 million BTC. This makes up about 71% of all 19.7 million BTC in circulation, which means most Bitcoin belongs to entities that rarely sell. The 30-day increase reached 180,000 BTC - the biggest jump since December 2022. These coins have moved to wallets that barely show any selling history, which suggests cold storage or long-term holding addresses.

Supply shock explained: demand vs. available BTC

Supply shocks happen when steady buyer demand meets decreasing available Bitcoin, which pushes prices higher. This economic principle matters more now as Bitcoin's exchange reserves keep dropping sharply. The amount of Bitcoin available to buy becomes more limited. This creates an imbalance where demand exceeds supply. Such conditions have led to major price increases historically, especially with positive economic factors.

Accumulation behavior signals long-term holding

Different investor groups show clear accumulation patterns. Bitcoin whales with 10-10,000 BTC have added 83,105 more coins in the last 30 days. Long-term holders (keeping Bitcoin for at least 155 days) have gathered 630,000 BTC since March. Their holdings grew from 13.66 million to 14.29 million. In fact, these long-term investors now buy 1.38 coins for every 1 sold by short-term holders.

This accumulation behavior shows strong belief in Bitcoin's future without doubt. The Binary Spending Indicator reveals less selling pressure from long-term holders. They seem more willing to hold rather than spend coins. About 30.5% of bitcoins haven't moved for 5 years. This shows early investors' steadfast dedication whatever the market conditions.

Macroeconomic shifts and ETF trends support bullish case

The economic landscape has created perfect conditions for Bitcoin's rise. Several external factors have pushed the cryptocurrency market higher and strengthened the bullish outlook.

US-China tariff pause boosts investor sentiment

The White House announced a 90-day pause in the trade war between the United States and China recently. This deal reduced US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China brought its tariffs down from 125% to 10%. Markets responded right away—the Dow surged with a thousand-point gain, Nasdaq jumped 3.25%, and S&P 500 climbed 2.5% after the announcement.

Dr. Kirill Kretov at CoinPanel notes: "The US-China trade talks are clearly market-moving and, together with broadly supportive macro data, have helped fuel a more bullish narrative for crypto". The reduced tariffs and expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have made Bitcoin more attractive. The Fed's first interest rate cut since 2020 came in September, which has historically signaled higher cryptocurrency prices.

Bitcoin ETF news adds to institutional confidence

Coinglass chart of total Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflows in USD. Bitcoin ETFs and potential supply shock. - Flush

Bitcoin ETFs keep pulling in significant capital. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw daily inflows of $232.90 million on May 15, 2025. This fits into a larger pattern where total crypto market inflows have reached $35 billion in just three weeks. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have gathered more than $62.90 billion since their January 2024 launch, surpassing their previous record of $61.60 billion.

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, observes: "We're going to have easier monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy... that could be a pretty good one-two punch in favor of digital assets". This mix of monetary easing and fiscal expansion sets up ideal conditions for Bitcoin's growth.

Analysts warn of short-term corrections despite optimism

Despite the positive environment, some indicators point to short-term volatility. The taker buy/sell ratio's 30-day moving average shows sellers have taken control. Short-term SOPR has fallen below 1, which shows short-term investors are selling at a loss—similar to March 2024's downtrends.

The funding rates continue to drop and might turn negative before they recover. While these signals suggest possible corrections, analysts believe Bitcoin will likely resume its upward movement after any correction phase ends.

Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming ?

Bitcoin looks ready to make a big price move based on recent evidence. A massive $1 billion outflow from Coinbase tells quite a story. Companies now buy Bitcoin at four times the rate of US spot ETFs, which shows growing trust from big players. The numbers speak volumes - 14 million BTC now sit in illiquid wallets, creating perfect conditions for a supply crunch.

Market conditions support this bullish outlook. Traditional markets have already responded well to the US-China tariff cuts. The Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cuts make Bitcoin even more attractive as an investment option. While short-term numbers hint at some bumpy roads ahead, the basic supply-demand story hasn't changed.

Recent buying patterns make this situation even more interesting. Big players holding between 10-10,000 BTC have scooped up over 83,000 coins in just a month. Long-term holders now buy 1.38 coins for every 1 coin that short-term investors sell. Exchange reserves keep dropping while institutional demand rises, which creates a supply squeeze that usually leads to higher prices.

Of course, some caution makes sense right now. Technical signals like funding rates and the taker buy/sell ratio suggest we might see some dips before the upward trend continues. Yet the big picture shows Bitcoin's supply dynamics have fundamentally changed, which could kick off the next major market cycle.

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